Why a billionaire just bet $48M on Flutter

THE QUIVER QUANT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Quiver's US House Long-Short strategy crushed it this week, returning 13.73% in just 7 days. Congress Long-Short followed at 11.01%, with Congress Buys at 8.96%.

Below the strategies table: billionaire Kenneth Dart placed a $48M total return swap on Flutter, Gottheimer dropped $750K+ in MSFT call options while co-chairing the AI Commission, and Lockheed landed a $4.76B PAC-3 missile contract. Full breakdown below.

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Below: strategy performance, Congress portfolio leaderboard, insider trading, outside spending, and the editorial deep dive

STRATEGY PERFORMANCE

POLITICS
Top Congress Portfolios This Week

QUIVER DATA
Significant Insider Purchases This Week

THE EDITORIAL QUANT
The $950M Oil Bet Hours Before Trump’s Iran Ceasefire

Hours before Trump announced a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7, Reuters reported that traders placed roughly $950M on declining oil prices. WTI then posted its largest one-day drop since 2020, falling 16.4% to $94.41. Separately, at least 50 brand-new Polymarket accounts loaded up on “yes” ceasefire bets in the hours before the announcement, booking hundreds of thousands in profits. Rep. Ritchie Torres called it “potentially the largest instance of insider trading in history.” Yesterday he sent his second letter demanding the SEC and CFTC open a joint investigation. Thursday we walk the timeline and cross-reference Torres’ own Quiver-tracked congress portfolio.

Also this Thursday: Who moved size before the announcement, what Torres’ own Quiver-tracked portfolio looks like, and whether this one actually gets enforced when the last two didn’t. See the full breakdown→ 

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QUIVER DATA
Government Contracts

Lockheed Martin's $4.76 billion PAC-3 missile contract is the week's headline defense deal. The company just landed a massive boost for accelerated production of the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 system—one of the military's most critical air-defense platforms. For defense investors tracking momentum, this is a strong signal that the Pentagon is moving quickly on upgrades to proven systems rather than waiting for the next generation.

The Space Force Andromeda program ($1.84B split across 14 firms) is worth watching for anyone following the orbital surveillance boom. These multi-award contracts are the Pentagon's way of spreading risk while ramping up production—each firm could see upwards of $131M. It's a smart signal that space-based defense intelligence is no longer optional.

The rest of the week's contract action shows steady spend across modernization (CACI's Army personnel systems upgrade) and platform maintenance (Bell's Osprey upgrades, Radiance's missile testing facility overhaul). No flashy new weapons platforms this week—just the bread-and-butter work of keeping existing systems sharp and production lines humming.

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