Warren Buffett's Latest Trade Moving the Market

Author

David Love
June 11, 2024

This Week’s Quiver Newsletter:


Each week, we are highlighting the top Quiver Strategies trending right now:

Get full access to these insights, copytrade and more by trying Quiver Premium for free👇

What you can expect to read about today:

  • An overview of recent notable Congress trades, including ~$20m of $MSFT call options purchased by Rep. Gottheimer.

  • Dive into the latest insider trades, including Warren Buffett’s latest Occidental Petroleum move.

  • New data on corporate donations to politicians this election cycle.

  • Euro slides after French President Macron calls for snap legislative election, facing an uphill battle.

LAST WEEK’S CONGRESSIONAL TRADES 

Insights from our Congress Trading Dashboard

  • Rep. Josh Gottheimer just disclosed trades of up to $20M of Microsoft (MSFT) call options, along with many other trades. He has now traded ~$84M of stock and options in the last year. He sits on the House Subcommittee on Investor Protection.

  • Senator Rick Scott disclosed trades in municipal securities on June 9, including sales and purchases ranging from $100K to $1M. The trades involved San Miguel County, Harris County, Port Portland, and Port of Seattle bonds.

  • Senator Markwayne Mullin bought stock in Raytheon (RTX) in October. We reported on the trade, because Mullin sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee. The stock has now risen 51% since his purchase.

  • Crowdstrike (CRWD) has now risen 195% since Rep. Nancy Pelosi bought 5,000 shares. We estimate that Pelosi has already made over $15M off her portfolio so far this year.

  • Representative Robert E. Latta bought up to $50K in Farmers and Merchants Bancorp (FMAO), a relatively small regional bank valued at around $300 million. The bank is headquartered in Mr. Latta’s home district in Ohio and he’s now bought the stock 9 times since 2020.

To see more details about their trades, and how they’ve performed since, check out our:

🚨BUFFETT BUYS $OXY + MORE INSIDER TRADES🚨

Insights from our Stock Insider Trading Activity Dashboard

Warren Buffett buys shares of Occidental Petroleum (OXY) for the first time since February 2024. Additionally, a director at Salesforce claims the first insider purchase of Salesforce (CRM) since March 2020.

Berkshire Hathaway Purchase

Between June 5th and June 7th, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) purchased 2.56 million shares of Occidental Petroleum (OXY) for approximately $153 million.

This significant investment increases Berkshire's total stake in Occidental Petroleum to 27.97%, consolidating its position as a top institutional holder with nearly a $15 billion stake.

This significant investment reflects confidence in Occidental's future performance, particularly in the energy sector.

Salesforce Insider Purchase

On June 3, Mason Morfit purchased 428K shares at a price of $233.17 per share, totaling approximately $99.8 million.

This acquisition marks the first insider purchase at Salesforce since 2020.

Mason Morfit, is Co-CEO and Chief Investment Officer of ValueAct Capital, and this purchase marks his first insider purchase at Salesforce (CRM) since joining the board in March 2023.

Check out trades by insiders on our:

CORPORATE POLITICAL DONATIONS BY POLITICIANS

We've been busy coding to track corporate political donations, revealing which companies are backing which politicians.

This spending can significantly influence political decisions and help sway legislation in a company’s favor, and now you can track this data in real-time.

Political Strategy:

  • Companies like Honeywell (HON) and Comcast (CMCSA) maintain balanced PAC contributions, possibly to hedge their political bets and ensure favorable policies regardless of which party is in power.

  • Companies with significant Republican support Home Depot (HD), Boeing (BA) might be strategically aligning with the party’s pro-business stance, potentially benefiting from lower taxes and deregulation.

Industry Trends:

  • The tech sector Netflix (NFLX), Arista Networks (ANET), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT) shows overwhelming support for Democrats, reflecting the industry's alignment with progressive values and policies on issues like net neutrality, privacy, and innovation.

  • Traditional sectors like retail and manufacturing Home Depot (HD), Boeing (BA) show more balanced or Republican-leaning contributions, aligning with the expectation of favorable business environments under conservative policies.

Market Sentiment:

  • Investor sentiment might be influenced by these donation patterns. Companies heavily supporting Democrats might be viewed favorably in a political environment that emphasizes progressive policies, potentially driving stock performance.

  • Conversely, companies with strong Republican support might be seen as beneficiaries of pro-business policies, which could also positively impact their stock performance.

Dive deep into who’s funding whom and what it might mean for their legislative actions:

EURO FALLS AS MACRON FACES HIGH-STAKES LEGISLATIVE BATTLE

French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap legislative ballot following a crushing defeat in the European Parliament election, in an effort to stop the rise of his far-right rival, Marine Le Pen. Although Macron's position as head of state remains secure, his ability to push through legislation and choose a like-minded prime minister is now at risk. The move is seen as highly audacious, with significant implications for both Macron's political project and the stability of French governance.

The euro fell to its weakest level in almost a month following the election results, as traders adjusted their expectations for European Central Bank rate cuts. Macron's decision underscores the increasing rejection of mainstream politics across the EU, with far-right parties making significant gains. The election will be held over two rounds beginning June 30, marking the first time this century that France's National Assembly has seen its term cut short.

Continued on our News Feed.