Synthetic GLP-1s' popularity is growing and so is their influence on the market

→ How GLP-1 Corporations are Fighting in DC for Market Share

If you’ve turned on your TV or scrolled social media recently, you are probably familiar with prescriptions like Wegovy, Ozempic, and Zepbound.

GLP-1 is a naturally occurring product in the gut working to regulate blood pressure and slow digestion, signaling fullness to the brain. But pharmaceutical companies have manufactured a synthetic drug to mimic the effects of GLP-1, called “GLP-1 agonists”, which have historically been used to treat chronic diseases like Type 2 diabetes.

In 2014, certain GLP-1 agonists were approved for weight management, and by the 2020s, drug companies released weekly injections (and now daily pills) with higher weight loss efficacy than their earlier counterparts, driving sales through the roof. Just between 2019 and 2023, the number of individuals without type 2 diabetes prescribed GLP-1 agonists reportedly increased 700%.

With increased knowledge and demand for GLP-1 agonists, corporations have been rushing to capitalize and profit off its popularity.

However, many companies face legal and practical challenges entering this market, due to hundreds of follow-on U.S. patents filed by early manufacturers of the drug. FDA approvals can also take months to years, and that happens before the drugs even hit the market.

Vying for dominance in this industry are Danish Novo Nordisk and American Elli Lilly & Co, which have both overcome significant legal hurdles. In this newsletter, we will be giving an overview of where each firm stands today and what they are doing to attempt to win over the public (and the government).

NVO and LLY dominate GLP-1 sector

There are two major pharmaceutical companies that dominate the GLP-1 industry in the US today: Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY). You might recognize the names of their ubiquitous prescriptions — Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy, and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Foundayo.

Since GLP-1 is a naturally occurring hormone and therefore cannot be patented, drug companies instead develop and patent synthetic compounds to mimic GLP-1. For example, NVO Ozempic and Wegovy are actually semaglutide.

NVO has hundreds of U.S. patents over the GLP-1 copycats, dating back decades. While patents were originally set to expire in 2026, the company announced follow-on patents extending through 2031. Currently, LLY holds U.S. patents over tirzepatide, which is marketed and sold as Zepbound and Mounjaro injections.

Lobbying spending goes up as patents face expiration

2025 saw some of the highest corporate lobbying counts in recent years, with LLY’s lobbying reaching over $10 million and NVO spending over $7M in lobbying.

Both companies’ lobbying efforts mirrored one another — With Trump implementing policies and Executive Orders aimed at capping the price of GLP-1 drugs for qualifying Medicare recipients, and new tariffs increasing prices of imports and exports worldwide, drug manufacturers reacted with increased corporate lobbying efforts and 2026 election donations.

Despite being based in Denmark, over half of NVO’s revenue is from North America, meaning its total profit is heavily influenced by American policies on drug pricing and access. So far in 2026, NVO has spent about $3.4m on lobbying for issues like IRA implementation, patent protection, and Most Favored Nation drug pricing (caps U.S. drug costs at global prices).

LLY has topped that at nearly $6 million spent on IP protection and market access within current trade negotiations. Essentially, increasing IP protections abroad prevents foreign drug companies from producing early generic copies of patented prescriptions like Foundayo or Zepbound.

LLY and NVO also made multiple donations to Republican candidates who have supported policies aimed at increasing patent and intellectual property protection, while opposing drug capping policies included in the Inflation Reduction Act, including Richard Hudson, Kevin Hern, and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise.

GLP-1 Industry could impact stocks from breath mints to packaged snacks

With patents set to expire, companies pouring research into biosimilars, and the introduction of new oral GLP-1 medications, drugs like Ozempic or Foundayo will become more and more accessible and affordable. J.P. Morgan estimates the industry will reach $200 billion by 2030, and the number of consumers of GLP-1 could more than double.

So as GLP-1’s continue to dominate the market and access to the prescriptions grows through programs like the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge, unexpected changes may be seen across markets.

Industries directly related to the production and distribution of GLP-1s, like medical devices, are expected to grow. But there may be more unforeseen circumstances across business sectors.

For example, the popularity of GLP-1s has already had a direct correlation with increasing gum and mint sales, according to Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner, likely due to the consumer-reported bad breath caused by slowed digestion.

Other reports also suspect possible hits to the snack market as GLP-1 use increases because the drugs suppress appetites and increase feelings of fullness, although it may take time for changes to the company’s performance to appear.