Polls vs. Betting Markets: Quiver's 2024 election insights

What you can expect to read about today:

• An overview of recent notable Congress trades, including major losses for Marjorie Taylor Greene.

• Dive into the 2024 Presidential Election and see how Quiver’s datasets can help you stay informed!

• Nvidia stock falls 4% on earnings report. Read more below.

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LAST WEEK’S CONGRESSIONAL TRADES 

Insights from our Congress Trading Dashboard

• Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has been on a streak of bad luck. Since June 24th 2024 these have been notable purchases that are down:

  • (CRWD) purchased up to $15k on June 24, 2024 and the position is down nearly 33%.

  • (DELL) purchased up to $15k on July 23, 2024 and is down nearly 15%.

  • (INTC) purchased up to $15k on Aug 22, 2024 and she is already down 9%. 

• High number of trades by Representative Mike Collins who bought up to $50k worth of the crypto altcoin Aerodrome 7/26/24. He sold this position on 08/04/24 only to purchase it back the next day.

• We are re-highlighting a trade we reported on back on 10/03/24 - a purchase by Senator Markwayne Mullin in which he purchased up to $15k of (RTX) Raytheon stock. This trade is up a staggering 71.5%.

• We just caught 81 STOCK Act violations by Representative Jared Moskowitz. Last week we reported on his purchase of Lockheed Martin stock, (LMT), on 02/13/2024. It has risen 30% since then. Moskowitz sits on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. In response to these violations, he has said:

  • “The transactions occurred in an account directed by an independent financial manager.”

  • “Due to an administrative error, the report preparer did not receive transaction notifications.”

  • “The issue was discovered while preparing his annual disclosure report and promptly rectified.”

  • “Safeguards have been implemented to make sure that future transactions are reported in a timely manner”

To see more details about their trades, and how they’ve performed since, check out our:

🚨HARRIS VS TRUMP 2024🚨

Insights from our Government Datasets:

Introduction

The outcome of the upcoming US Presidential Election will likely have a large influence on the market in the coming months, as each candidate’s platform favors different sectors and companies.

With that in mind, here’s a look at what the polling and election markets have been saying recently about how the race is evolving, and which candidate is in the lead.

Polling Data Overview

According to Nate Silver (founder of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election methodology) Trump has slightly overtaken Kamala Harris in the Electoral College but not the popular vote. According to his models, there is now a 52% chance that Trump wins the election.

The Silver Bulletin polling averages adjust for whether polls are conducted amongst registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of RFK Jr., and what is known as house effects.

The model points to Pennsylvania as the pivotal swing state likely to determine the election outcome. Additionally, the data reveals a widening gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote, with a 17% probability that Harris could secure the popular vote but still lose the presidency, underscoring the complexities of the U.S. electoral system.

The forecast further suggests that Trump’s chances have been buoyed by increased support in key battleground states, though the race remains highly competitive.

Betting Markets Analysis

Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based betting platform, has been offering some intriguing insights into the Trump vs. Harris matchup. Here's the current state of play:

• Trump: 50% (+0%)

• Harris: 48% (-1%)

Trump's odds have been on a wild ride. They peaked at 72% following Biden's poor debate performance and Trump’s assassination attempt. But Harris has been making steady gains since becoming the presumptive nominee.

On August 15, Harris briefly took the lead with 54% to Trump's 46%. It was a watershed moment, which was the first time Trump's odds dipped below 50% since May. Trump has bounced back slightly over the following weeks, but the race still appears to be a toss-up.

You might be wondering, "Why should I trust a bunch of online gamblers over traditional polls?" Here's are some reasons why betting markets can be an effective predictive signal:

1. Skin in the game: Unlike poll respondents, traders put their money where their mouth is. This financial stake incentivizes thorough research and careful consideration.

2. Global perspective: With U.S. residents technically barred from Polymarket, it could lead to a less partisan, international view of the race. However, it is still worth considering other potential biases based on the demographics of participants in this market.

3. Real-time reactions: Betting odds shift rapidly in response to news and events, providing a dynamic picture of the race.

Quiver’s Political Datasets

As the 2024 presidential race unfolds, our datasets offer more unique perspectives on the Trump vs. Harris contest, and how companies are throwing their support behind each candidate:

Funding and Trading Patterns:

• Election Fundraising: Tracks campaign contribution trends.

• Congress Trading: Monitors stock trades by political insiders.

These datasets reveal potential discrepancies between public statements and financial actions of key political figures, as well as identify trends in fundraising efforts by political party.

Corporate Influence:

• Corporate Election Contributions: Track campaign contributions made by publicly traded companies. Includes the contributions of political action committees (PACs) associated with companies & company employees.

• Corporate Lobbying: We scrape Corporate Lobbying disclosures about company clients, which issues they are lobbying on and how much they are being paid. This helps track which companies are spending money for legislative influence.

Both of these can help you learn which political campaigns companies and employees are backing with their financial contributions, and what issues those same companies are lobbying for.

Beltway Sentiment:

• DC Insider Score: Quiver’s proprietary dataset that uses our Congressional Trading, Corporate Lobbying & Government Contracts to generate an “DC Insider Score.” We rank companies based on their presence in each category and average those rankings.

This score helps you understand the political benefit & influence at a federal level amongst publicly traded companies.

We'll continue to analyze these metrics to provide nuanced insights into the evolving political dynamics, and how Wall Street could be effected by November’s elections.

Check out our Government Datasets on Quiver:

NVDA STOCK SLIDES 4% ON EARNINGS

Nvidia's (NVDA) stock experienced a 4% drop on Thursday following its forecast, which failed to meet investors' lofty expectations, signaling a potential market correction after an impressive AI-driven rally. Despite a solid revenue forecast of $32.5 billion for the fiscal third quarter, concerns about the company’s gross margins and regulatory scrutiny dampened investor sentiment. However, the dip in Nvidia’s shares presents a buying opportunity for some analysts, who remain confident in the long-term AI growth story. Broadcom, AMD, and other tech stocks saw gains amid this market activity.

Nvidia's modest selloff contrasts with its previous trend of surpassing expectations, leading some to question whether the AI boom can continue to sustain the stock's upward momentum. Investors had banked on Nvidia's ability to consistently deliver blowout results, but the latest forecast fell short of the highest market estimates. This has raised concerns about the company's future performance, particularly in the face of intensifying competition and potential regulatory hurdles.

Continued on our News Feed.